The alumina fundamentals are relatively loose, and the spot price may remain in the doldrums in the short term [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 9

Futures Market: On Friday, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,909 yuan/mt during the night session, with a high of 2,922 yuan/mt, a low of 2,889 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,898 yuan/mt, down 3 yuan/mt or 0.10% from the previous close. Open interest stood at 307,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of June 6, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $75.20/mt, up $0.26/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $75/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry Updates:

(1) Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on June 6, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 21.2 million mt, a decrease of 360,000 mt from the previous week.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 6, the SMM Alumina Index premium against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 was 325.68 yuan/mt.

Warrant Report: On June 6, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,906 mt from the previous trading day to 92,500 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan remained unchanged at 300 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged at 3,001 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained unchanged at 0 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang decreased by 3,906 mt from the previous trading day to 88,600 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 6, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.85/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to an approximate external selling price of 3,269 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 0.70 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price, indicating a gradual opening of the alumina import window.

Summary:

Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 mt/year to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina arrived at Chinese ports. With supply recovering and no significant changes in demand, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt last week. The import window remained open, and imported alumina supply is expected to increase in the future. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals may shift towards a relatively loose pattern, and alumina spot prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Continuous attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]